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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Akhmat v Fakel: numbers & prediction

Cup · Russia · Akhmat-Arena

Akhmat

LDDLD
2–1
FT

Fakel

LDLLL
Akhmat 62%Draw 23%Fakel 15% Expected goals 1.64 – 0.66
85%
Betarazi pick

Akhmat or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.24Odds
1

Value bet: Akhmat to win @ 1.86 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultAkhmat to win ✓62% · @1.86
Double chanceAkhmat or draw ✓85% · @1.24
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.07

Akhmat vs Fakel: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Fakel travel to face Akhmat on Tuesday 18 August in the Cup, with Akhmat-Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 18:45 WAT.

Current form

Akhmat, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Krasnodar, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Fakel, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to CSKA Moscow, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Akhmat, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.2 for Fakel.

Head to head

When they last met (10 Aug 2026) it ended Fakel 0–0 Akhmat.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Akhmat 1.6 xG, Fakel 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 45%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Akhmat 62%, draw 23%, Fakel 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Akhmat or draw (85%) at 1.24.
  • GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.87.
  • Price worth noting: Akhmat to win @1.86 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Akhmat or draw (85%, odds 1.24 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Akhmat 1–0 Fakel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Akhmat62%fair 1.62 · @1.86
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.68
Fakel15%fair 6.47 · @4.35
2.30Expected goals
1.64Akhmat xG
0.66Fakel xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%

From our goals model: Akhmat 1.6 – 0.7 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAkhmat to win ✓62%1.621.86 ▲
Double chanceAkhmat or draw ✓85%1.181.24
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗55%1.821.87
Draw no betAkhmat (draw no bet) ✓80%1.25–
Asian handicapAkhmat -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.64–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓69%1.451.29
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗56%1.791.84
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.321.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.131.06
First team to scoreAkhmat to score first ✓64%1.56–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Akhmat / FT Akhmat ✓38%2.66–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16%6.07–

Recent results

Akhmat – last 6

LDDLDW
15 Aug@ FC Krasnodar0–1L
10 Aug@ Fakel0–0D
5 Aug@ FC Krasnodar1–1D
2 Augvs Spartak Moscow1–2L
26 Jul@ Lokomotiv1–1D
11 Jul@ IMT Novi Beograd1–0W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Fakel – last 6

LDLLLL
15 Aug@ CSKA Moscow0–1L
10 Augvs Akhmat0–0D
5 Augvs Dynamo0–1L
2 Aug@ FC Krasnodar2–3L
25 Julvs Dinamo Makhachkala1–2L
15 Jul@ FC Rostov1–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

10 Aug 2026Fakel v Akhmat0–0
Akhmat vs Fakel head-to-head page →

More Cup predictions

League hub
FT CSKA Moscow0 Akron1 164%1.52X19%4.65217%6.05 2.2–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.73 ✗
FT Rodina Moskva1 FC Orenburg4 145%2.51X22%3.56233%2.78 2.3–1.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.71 ✓
FT FC Rostov1 Lokomotiv0 143%2.57X22%3.54236%2.72 1.6–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Akhmat vs Fakel?

Our pick is Akhmat or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.

Who will win Akhmat vs Fakel?

On our numbers Akhmat have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fakel 15%.

How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs Fakel?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Akhmat vs Fakel?

Our predicted score is Akhmat 1–0 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Akhmat vs Fakel?

Akhmat vs Fakel (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.