Luton 63%Draw 22%Notts County 15%Expected goals 2.47 – 1.22
82%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLuton to win ✗63% · @1.63
Double chanceLuton or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Luton vs Notts County: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Notts County travel to face Luton on Saturday 22 August in the League One, with Kenilworth Road the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Luton are 4th, among the top four, on 24 points after 14 matches; Notts County are 17th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Luton, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Reading, away. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Notts County, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Leicester, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Luton, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Notts County.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Luton 2.5 xG, Notts County 1.2 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Luton 63%, draw 22%, Notts County 15%.
Lower-risk option: Luton or draw (85%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luton 2–1 Notts County. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Luton63%fair 1.60 · @1.63
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.95
Notts County15%fair 6.59 · @4.90
3.69Expected goals
2.47Luton xG
1.22Notts County xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
2–08%
1–18%
3–06%
1–06%
From our goals model: Luton 2.5 – 1.2 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luton to win✗
63%
1.60
1.63
Double chance
Luton or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Draw no bet
Luton (draw no bet)
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Luton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.73 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.32
1.15
First team to score
Luton to score first
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Luton ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Luton / FT Luton✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Recent results
Luton – last 6
WWLWDW
15 Aug
@ Reading
4–3
W
8 Aug
@ Gillingham
3–0
W
2 Aug
vs GO Ahead Eagles
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Al Kholood
2–0
W
18 Jul
@ Barnet
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Hitchin Town
5–0
W
2.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Notts County – last 6
DDDLLL
15 Aug
vs Leicester
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Burnley
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Walsall
0–0
D
18 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
0–2
L
14 Jul
@ Randers FC
1–3
L
11 Jul
@ Viborg
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luton and Notts County.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Luton vs Notts County?
On our numbers Luton have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Notts County 15%.
How many goals will there be in Luton vs Notts County?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luton vs Notts County?
Our predicted score is Luton 2–1 Notts County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Luton vs Notts County?
Luton vs Notts County (League One) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Kenilworth Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
