Plymouth v Burton Albion Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPlymouth to win ✗65% · @1.57

Double chancePlymouth or draw ✗87% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18

Plymouth vs Burton Albion: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 26 September the League One brings Plymouth against Burton Albion at Home Park. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Plymouth are 5th, upper half, on 23 points after 14 matches; Burton Albion are 15th (lower half) with 17.

Current form

Plymouth, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Crystal Palace U21, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.

Burton Albion, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Nottingham Forest U21, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Plymouth, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.0 for Burton Albion.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Plymouth 2.2 xG, Burton Albion 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Plymouth 65%, draw 21%, Burton Albion 13%.
Lower-risk option: Plymouth or draw (87%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Plymouth 2–0 Burton Albion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Plymouth65%fair 1.54 · @1.57

Draw21%fair 4.66 · @4.00

Burton Albion13%fair 7.43 · @5.25

3.18Expected goals

2.23Plymouth xG

0.95Burton Albion xG

57%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–010%

2–110%

1–09%

1–19%

3–08%

3–17%

From our goals model: Plymouth 2.2 – 1.0 Burton Albion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Plymouth to win ✗	65%	1.54	1.57
Double chance	Plymouth or draw ✗	87%	1.16	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	57%	1.76	1.70
Draw no bet	Plymouth (draw no bet) ✗	83%	1.21	–
Asian handicap	Plymouth -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	80%	1.24	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.70	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	63%	1.60	1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.17
First team to score	Plymouth to score first ✗	67%	1.49	–
Half-time result	Plymouth ahead at half-time ✗	49%	2.05	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Plymouth / FT Plymouth ✗	44%	2.30	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.18	–

Plymouth – last 6

WWWWLW

22 Sep	vs Crystal Palace U21	5–1	W
19 Sep	@ Blackpool	4–2	W
12 Sep	vs Barnsley	3–0	W
5 Sep	@ Doncaster	3–2	W
1 Sep	@ Leicester	0–2	L
29 Aug	vs Bradford	2–0	W

2.8Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Burton Albion – last 6

DDLDWL

22 Sep	vs Nottingham Forest U21	1–1	D
19 Sep	vs Mansfield Town	2–2	D
12 Sep	@ Oxford United	0–3	L
5 Sep	vs Cambridge United	2–2	D
2 Sep	vs AFC Wimbledon	4–1	W
29 Aug	@ Notts County	1–2	L

1.7Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9

Team

Pts

+16

+12

+11

+10

-2

-3

-1

-12

-4

-8

-11

-12

-10

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?

On our numbers Plymouth have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Burton Albion 13%.

How many goals will there be in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?

Our predicted score is Plymouth 2–0 Burton Albion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is Plymouth vs Burton Albion?

Plymouth vs Burton Albion (League One) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Home Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Plymouth v Burton Albion: numbers & prediction