Value bet: Palermo to win @ 2.44 – our chance 50% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPalermo to win ✓50% · @2.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Palermo vs Lecce: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Palermo welcome Lecce to Stadio Renzo Barbera for a Coppa Italia fixture on Monday 17 August (20:15 WAT).
Current form
Palermo, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Juventus, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Lecce, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over SS Monopoli, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lecce, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Palermo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palermo 1.5 xG, Lecce 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palermo 50%, draw 22%, Lecce 29%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Palermo to win @2.44 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palermo 1–1 Lecce. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palermo50%fair 2.01 · @2.44
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.45
Lecce29%fair 3.48 · @2.72
2.61Expected goals
1.53Palermo xG
1.08Lecce xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Palermo 1.5 – 1.1 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palermo to win✓
50%
2.01
2.44 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.75
Draw no bet
Palermo (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Lecce +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
Palermo to score first✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palermo / FT Palermo✓
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Palermo – last 6
LWDDWL
11 Aug
@ Juventus
0–2
L
7 Aug
@ Melbourne City
2–0
W
29 Jul
vs Iraklis 1908
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs 1. FC Nürnberg
2–2
D
22 Jul
vs Paradiso
7–0
W
18 Jul
@ FC Ingolstadt 04
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lecce – last 6
WDLWWW
9 Aug
vs SS Monopoli
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Istra 1961
2–2
D
22 Jul
vs FC Politehnica Timisoara
0–1
L
24 May
vs Genoa
1–0
W
17 May
@ Sassuolo
3–2
W
1 May
@ Pisa
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palermo and Lecce.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Palermo vs Lecce?
On our numbers Palermo have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lecce 29%.
How many goals will there be in Palermo vs Lecce?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palermo vs Lecce?
Our predicted score is Palermo 1–1 Lecce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Palermo vs Lecce?
Palermo vs Lecce (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Coppa Italia · Italy · Stadio Renzo Barbera
Pisa1
Empoli1
Sassuolo3
Cesena0
Cremonese2
Sampdoria0