Value bet: Sevilla to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSevilla to win ✓58% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.25
Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 26 July the Friendlies Clubs brings Sevilla against AD Ceuta FC. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Sevilla, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cordoba, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
AD Ceuta FC, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Albacete, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sevilla 1.5 xG, AD Ceuta FC 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sevilla 58%, draw 21%, AD Ceuta FC 21%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Sevilla to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sevilla 1–0 AD Ceuta FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sevilla58%fair 1.73 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.45
AD Ceuta FC21%fair 4.72 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.54Sevilla xG
0.71AD Ceuta FC xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.5 – 0.7 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sevilla
AD Ceuta FC
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
-18%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-21%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.99
0.83
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sevilla to win✓
58%
1.73
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.67
Draw no bet
Sevilla (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
AD Ceuta FC +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.93 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Sevilla to score first
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sevilla / FT Sevilla✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.25
–
Recent results
Sevilla – last 6
DLWLWW
23 Jul
@ Cordoba
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Cracovia Krakow
0–1
L
11 Jul
vs Juventud Torremolinos
1–0
W
17 May
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 May
@ Villarreal
3–2
W
4 May
vs Real Sociedad
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
WWDDLD
30 May
vs Albacete
1–0
W
24 May
@ FC Andorra
2–0
W
9 May
vs Castellón
1–1
D
10 Apr
vs Real Sociedad II
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Eibar
0–3
L
1 Apr
@ Burgos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and AD Ceuta FC.
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AD Ceuta FC 21%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Sevilla 1–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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