Value bet: Burgos to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBurgos to win ✗39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.24
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Burgos travel to face Sporting Gijon on Sunday 23 August in the Segunda División, with El Molinón the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Sporting Gijon are 7th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Burgos are 3rd (among the top four) with 24. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sporting Gijon, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sabadell, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Burgos, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Cordoba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Burgos, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.2 for Sporting Gijon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sporting Gijon 1.2 xG, Burgos 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting Gijon 36%, draw 25%, Burgos 39%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Burgos to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.74, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting Gijon 1–1 Burgos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sporting Gijon36%fair 2.74 · @2.45
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @2.88
Burgos39%fair 2.57 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.23Sporting Gijon xG
1.27Burgos xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sporting Gijon 1.2 – 1.3 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burgos to win✗
39%
2.57
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Burgos (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Sporting Gijon +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Burgos to score first✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burgos / FT Burgos✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.24
–
Recent results
Sporting Gijon – last 6
DLLLLL
17 Aug
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Valladolid
2–4
L
7 Aug
@ Racing Santander
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
0–5
L
25 Jul
@ Celta Vigo
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Marino de Luanco
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WDLWWW
16 Aug
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
8 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
1 Aug
vs Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Jul
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–0
W
31 May
vs FC Andorra
1–0
W
24 May
@ Cultural Leonesa
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Gijon and Burgos.
What is the prediction for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
On our numbers Sporting Gijon have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Burgos 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Sporting Gijon 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at El Molinón.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
