Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlmeria to win ✓62% · @1.62
Double chanceAlmeria or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.60
Almeria vs Leganes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Almeria welcome Leganes to UD Almería Stadium for a Segunda División fixture on Sunday 11 October (15:15 WAT). In the table, Almeria are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 13 matches; Leganes are 18th (lower half) with 12. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Almeria, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Burgos, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Leganes, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Cadiz, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Almeria, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Leganes.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Almeria 2–1 Leganes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almeria 1.5 xG, Leganes 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almeria 62%, draw 20%, Leganes 18%.
Lower-risk option: Almeria or draw (82%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Almeria to win (62%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almeria 1–0 Leganes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almeria62%fair 1.62 · @1.62
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.80
Leganes18%fair 5.48 · @4.60
2.19Expected goals
1.54Almeria xG
0.65Leganes xG
51%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Almeria 1.5 – 0.6 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Almeria to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Almeria vs Leganes?
On our numbers Almeria have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Leganes 18%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Almeria 1–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Leganes?
Almeria vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
