Athletic Club 29%Draw 23%Atletico Madrid 49%Expected goals 1.27 – 1.73
60%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2.30 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✗49% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.59
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Madrid travel to face Athletic Club on Saturday 5 September in the La Liga – the ball rolls at 15:15 WAT. In the table, Athletic Club are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Athletic Club, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Celta Vigo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Sevilla, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Athletic Club.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Athletic Club 1.3 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.7 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Athletic Club 29%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 49%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Atletico Madrid to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Athletic Club 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Athletic Club29%fair 3.47 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
Atletico Madrid49%fair 2.06 · @2.30
3.00Expected goals
1.27Athletic Club xG
1.73Atletico Madrid xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.3 – 1.7 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✗
49%
2.06
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.67
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Athletic Club +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Atletico Madrid to score first✗
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
29%
3.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.59
–
Recent results
Athletic Club – last 6
WLLLLL
30 Aug
@ Celta Vigo
2–0
W
27 Aug
@ Barcelona
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Sevilla
1–3
L
21 Aug
@ Zaragoza
1–3
L
14 Aug
@ Atalanta
0–1
L
9 Aug
@ Marseille
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WDWWLL
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
19 Aug
vs Malaga
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Marseille
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Manchester City
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Manchester United
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Madrid 49%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
