Cultural Leonesa 59%Draw 22%Mérida AD 18%Expected goals 0.48 – 0.02
82%
Betarazi pick
Cultural Leonesa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Cultural Leonesa to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCultural Leonesa to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceCultural Leonesa or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓29% · fair 3.43
Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 6 September the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Cultural Leonesa against Mérida AD. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Cultural Leonesa are 14th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; Mérida AD are 8th (upper half) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cultural Leonesa, last 5: DDWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Barakaldo, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Mérida AD, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo La Coruña II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cultural Leonesa 0.5 xG, Mérida AD 0.0 xG – a total near 0.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 99% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cultural Leonesa 59%, draw 22%, Mérida AD 18%.
Lower-risk option: Cultural Leonesa or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (63%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Cultural Leonesa to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cultural Leonesa or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cultural Leonesa 0–0 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cultural Leonesa59%fair 1.68 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @2.88
Mérida AD18%fair 5.41 · @3.90
0.50Expected goals
0.48Cultural Leonesa xG
0.02Mérida AD xG
37%Both score
1%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–061%
1–029%
2–07%
0–11%
3–01%
1–11%
From our goals model: Cultural Leonesa 0.5 – 0.0 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cultural Leonesa to win✓
59%
1.68
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Cultural Leonesa or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Cultural Leonesa (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Mérida AD +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
99%
1.01
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
100%
1.00
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
100%
1.00
–
First team to score
No goal✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
80%
1.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
61%
1.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
29%
3.43
–
Recent results
Cultural Leonesa – last 6
DDWDDL
30 Aug
@ Barakaldo
0–0
D
21 Aug
@ Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
5–0
W
8 Aug
@ Burgos
0–0
D
5 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Athletic Club II
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
WWLLLL
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–4
L
9 May
@ Barakaldo
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cultural Leonesa and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Cultural Leonesa or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Cultural Leonesa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mérida AD 18%.
How many goals will there be in Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 0.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 1% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Cultural Leonesa 0–0 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 0.5 goals in total.
When is Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
