Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMirandes to win ✓65% · @1.67
Double chanceMirandes or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.23
Mirandes vs UD Ourense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mirandes welcome UD Ourense to Estadio Municipal de Anduva for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Saturday 5 September (15:30 WAT). In the table, Mirandes are 5th, upper half, on 17 points after 11 matches; UD Ourense are 20th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Mirandes, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cacereño, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
UD Ourense, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ponferradina, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirandes 1.3 xG, UD Ourense 0.4 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirandes 65%, draw 20%, UD Ourense 15%.
Lower-risk option: Mirandes or draw (85%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirandes 1–0 UD Ourense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirandes65%fair 1.54 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.50
UD Ourense15%fair 6.75 · @4.33
1.73Expected goals
1.34Mirandes xG
0.39UD Ourense xG
45%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–024%
0–018%
2–016%
1–19%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Mirandes 1.3 – 0.4 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirandes to win✓
65%
1.54
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Mirandes or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.67
Draw no bet
Mirandes (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Mirandes -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.08
First team to score
Mirandes to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirandes / FT Mirandes✓
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
24%
4.23
–
Recent results
Mirandes – last 6
LLWDWW
28 Aug
@ Cacereño
0–1
L
21 Aug
@ UD Logroñés
0–4
L
19 Aug
@ La Calzada
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Real Madrid II
0–0
D
13 Aug
@ Atlético Madrid II
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Osasuna II
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
UD Ourense – last 6
LWWDWL
29 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–1
L
31 May
@ Conquense
2–0
W
24 May
vs Conquense
1–0
W
3 May
vs Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ Bergantiños
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirandes and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Mirandes have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and UD Ourense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Mirandes 1–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Mirandes vs UD Ourense?
Mirandes vs UD Ourense (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Anduva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
