Ponferradina vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ponferradina welcome Mérida AD for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Saturday 19 September (17:45 WAT). In the table, Ponferradina are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Mérida AD are 8th (upper half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ponferradina, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Deportivo La Coruña II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Mérida AD, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Mirandes, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ponferradina, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponferradina 1.6 xG, Mérida AD 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponferradina 61%, draw 24%, Mérida AD 15%.
Lower-risk option: Ponferradina or draw (85%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponferradina 1–0 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponferradina61%fair 1.64 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.30
Mérida AD15%fair 6.50 · @4.33
2.30Expected goals
1.63Ponferradina xG
0.67Mérida AD xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.6 – 0.7 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win✓
61%
1.64
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.00
Draw no bet
Ponferradina (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Ponferradina -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
First team to score
Ponferradina to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.21
–
Recent results
Ponferradina – last 6
LDWDWD
13 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Lugo
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ UD Ourense
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
LLWWLL
12 Sep
vs Mirandes
3–4
L
6 Sep
@ Cultural Leonesa
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponferradina and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mérida AD 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
Ponferradina vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
