Racing Ferrol 63%Draw 24%Barakaldo 13%Expected goals 1.70 – 0.63
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Racing Ferrol to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRacing Ferrol to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceRacing Ferrol or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.30
Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barakaldo travel to face Racing Ferrol on Saturday 19 September in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio Municipal da Malata the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Racing Ferrol are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 11 matches; Barakaldo are 12th (lower half) with 14. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Racing Ferrol, last 5: WLDDD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Real Unión, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Barakaldo, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Extremadura 1924, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Ferrol 1.7 xG, Barakaldo 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Ferrol 63%, draw 24%, Barakaldo 13%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Ferrol or draw (87%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Racing Ferrol to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Ferrol 1–0 Barakaldo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Ferrol63%fair 1.59 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.25
Barakaldo13%fair 7.70 · @4.00
2.33Expected goals
1.70Racing Ferrol xG
0.63Barakaldo xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Racing Ferrol 1.7 – 0.6 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Ferrol to win✓
63%
1.59
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Racing Ferrol or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Racing Ferrol (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Racing Ferrol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Racing Ferrol to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Ferrol / FT Racing Ferrol✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.30
–
Recent results
Racing Ferrol – last 6
WLDDDD
13 Sep
vs Real Unión
3–2
W
6 Sep
@ Extremadura 1924
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
17 May
vs Osasuna II
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
WLDLWL
11 Sep
vs Extremadura 1924
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portugalete
0–2
L
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
1 May
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Ferrol and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers Racing Ferrol have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Barakaldo 13%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is Racing Ferrol 1–0 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal da Malata.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
