Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultLugo to win ✓47% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Lugo vs Racing Ferrol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 26 September the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Lugo against Racing Ferrol at Estadio Anxo Carro. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Lugo are 1st, leading the league, on 28 points after 11 matches; Racing Ferrol are 6th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Lugo, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Zamora, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Racing Ferrol, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Barakaldo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lugo, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for Racing Ferrol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lugo 1.3 xG, Racing Ferrol 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lugo 47%, draw 23%, Racing Ferrol 30%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lugo 1–0 Racing Ferrol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lugo47%fair 2.13 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Racing Ferrol30%fair 3.37 · @3.20
2.19Expected goals
1.27Lugo xG
0.92Racing Ferrol xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.3 – 0.9 Racing Ferrol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✓
47%
2.13
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Lugo (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Racing Ferrol +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Lugo to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✓
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.06
–
Recent results
Lugo – last 6
WWDWWW
20 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs CD Coria
1–0
W
4 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
21 Aug
vs Ourense CF
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs Coruxo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Racing Ferrol – last 6
WWLDDD
19 Sep
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Unión
3–2
W
6 Sep
@ Extremadura 1924
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and Racing Ferrol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
On our numbers Lugo have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Racing Ferrol 30%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–0 Racing Ferrol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
Lugo vs Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
