Value bet: Cacereño to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win ✓40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.22
Mérida AD vs Cacereño: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cacereño travel to face Mérida AD on Sunday 4 October in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio Romano Jose Fouto the venue – the ball rolls at 17:45 WAT. In the table, Mérida AD are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Cacereño are 10th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mérida AD, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 3–5 defeat to UD Logroñés, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Cacereño, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with UD Ourense, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cacereño, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Mérida AD.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Feb 2026) it ended Mérida AD 1–0 Cacereño.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mérida AD 1.3 xG, Cacereño 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mérida AD 40%, draw 23%, Cacereño 37%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Cacereño to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mérida AD 1–1 Cacereño. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mérida AD40%fair 2.52 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.00
Cacereño37%fair 2.69 · @3.20
2.50Expected goals
1.28Mérida AD xG
1.22Cacereño xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.3 – 1.2 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cacereño 37%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Mérida AD vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
