Ponferradina vs Mirandes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 4 October the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Ponferradina against Mirandes. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Ponferradina are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Mirandes are 5th (upper half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ponferradina, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Pontevedra, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Mirandes, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Unionistas de Salamanca, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponferradina 1.1 xG, Mirandes 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponferradina 38%, draw 23%, Mirandes 39%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponferradina 1–1 Mirandes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponferradina38%fair 2.64 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.00
Mirandes39%fair 2.57 · @2.50
2.20Expected goals
1.09Ponferradina xG
1.11Mirandes xG
55%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.1 – 1.1 Mirandes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirandes to win✗
39%
2.57
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.85
Draw no bet
Mirandes (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Ponferradina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Mirandes to score first✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirandes / FT Mirandes✗
20%
4.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.43
–
Recent results
Ponferradina – last 6
DWLDWD
27 Sep
@ Pontevedra
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Mérida AD
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Lugo
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ UD Ourense
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mirandes – last 6
WDWWLL
27 Sep
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Real Unión
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Mérida AD
4–3
W
5 Sep
vs UD Ourense
2–0
W
28 Aug
@ Cacereño
0–1
L
21 Aug
@ UD Logroñés
0–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponferradina and Mirandes.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mirandes 39%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–1 Mirandes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Mirandes?
Ponferradina vs Mirandes (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
