Arenas Getxo 32%Draw 23%Mérida AD 45%Expected goals 1.50 – 1.79
62%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arenas Getxo welcome Mérida AD to Estadio Municipal de Fadura for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 18 October (11:00 WAT). In the table, Arenas Getxo are 19th, in the drop zone, on 11 points after 11 matches; Mérida AD are 8th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Arenas Getxo, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Cultural Leonesa, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Mérida AD, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Pontevedra, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mérida AD, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.2 for Arenas Getxo.
Head to head
When they last met (24 Apr 2026) it ended Arenas Getxo 2–0 Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arenas Getxo 1.5 xG, Mérida AD 1.8 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arenas Getxo 32%, draw 23%, Mérida AD 45%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Mérida AD to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arenas Getxo32%fair 3.11 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.00
Mérida AD45%fair 2.24 · @2.38
3.29Expected goals
1.50Arenas Getxo xG
1.79Mérida AD xG
62%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–17%
0–26%
From our goals model: Arenas Getxo 1.5 – 1.8 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Arenas Getxo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mérida AD 45%.
How many goals will there be in Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
