Real Avilés 56%Draw 24%UD Ourense 20%Expected goals 1.59 – 0.84
80%
Betarazi pick
Real Avilés or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultReal Avilés to win ✓56% · @1.85
Double chanceReal Avilés or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Real Avilés vs UD Ourense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
UD Ourense travel to face Real Avilés on Sunday 18 October in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta the venue – the ball rolls at 17:15 WAT. In the table, Real Avilés are 4th, among the top four, on 17 points after 11 matches; UD Ourense are 20th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Real Avilés, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ponferradina, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
UD Ourense, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Barakaldo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Avilés 1.6 xG, UD Ourense 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Avilés 56%, draw 24%, UD Ourense 20%.
Lower-risk option: Real Avilés or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Real Avilés or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Avilés 1–0 UD Ourense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Avilés56%fair 1.79 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.00
UD Ourense20%fair 4.90 · @3.75
2.43Expected goals
1.59Real Avilés xG
0.84UD Ourense xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Real Avilés 1.6 – 0.8 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Avilés to win✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Double chance
Real Avilés or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.75
Draw no bet
Real Avilés (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
UD Ourense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Real Avilés to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Avilés / FT Real Avilés✓
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.70
–
Recent results
Real Avilés – last 6
WLDDWL
11 Oct
@ Ponferradina
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Lugo
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Barakaldo
3–3
D
19 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Athletic Club II
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
UD Ourense – last 6
WDDLLL
10 Oct
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Cacereño
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Mirandes
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Avilés and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Real Avilés or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Real Avilés have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and UD Ourense 20%.
How many goals will there be in Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Real Avilés 1–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Real Avilés vs UD Ourense (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
