Lugo 44%Draw 23%Mérida AD 33%Expected goals 1.55 – 1.28
59%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultLugo to win ✓44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.04
Lugo vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:45 WAT, Sunday 1 November: Lugo v Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio Anxo Carro. In the table, Lugo are 1st, leading the league, on 28 points after 11 matches; Mérida AD are 8th (upper half) with 16. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lugo, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Real Unión, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Mérida AD, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with CD Coria, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Lugo, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lugo 1.5 xG, Mérida AD 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lugo 44%, draw 23%, Mérida AD 33%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.69, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lugo 1–1 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lugo44%fair 2.26 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.00
Mérida AD33%fair 3.08 · @3.00
2.83Expected goals
1.55Lugo xG
1.28Mérida AD xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.5 – 1.3 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✓
44%
2.26
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.75
Draw no bet
Lugo (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Mérida AD +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Lugo to score first✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✓
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Lugo – last 6
LWWWWW
23 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–4
L
17 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
3–0
W
12 Oct
vs UD Logroñés
3–1
W
2 Oct
@ Real Avilés
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
DWWWLL
25 Oct
vs CD Coria
0–0
D
18 Oct
@ Arenas Getxo
4–0
W
11 Oct
@ Pontevedra
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Cacereño
2–0
W
27 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
3–5
L
19 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and Mérida AD.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Lugo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mérida AD 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs Mérida AD?
Lugo vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
