Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +60%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓53% · @3.00
Double chanceÁguilas or draw ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.67
Águilas vs Alcorcon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:15 WAT, Sunday 30 August: Águilas v Alcorcon in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio El Rubial. In the table, Águilas are 17th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Alcorcon are 5th (upper half) with 18.
Current form
Águilas, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Lorca Deportiva, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Alcorcon, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Unionistas de Salamanca, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Águilas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Alcorcon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Águilas 1.2 xG, Alcorcon 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Águilas 24%, draw 53%, Alcorcon 23%.
Lower-risk option: Águilas or draw (77%) at 1.36.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Águilas or draw (77%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.30, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Águilas 1–1 Alcorcon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Águilas24%fair 4.22 · @2.55
Draw53%fair 1.88 · @3.00
Alcorcon23%fair 4.33 · @2.65
2.42Expected goals
1.21Águilas xG
1.20Alcorcon xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Águilas 1.2 – 1.2 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.88
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Águilas or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Águilas (draw no bet)
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Alcorcon +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Águilas to score first✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Águilas / FT Águilas✗
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.67
–
Recent results
Águilas – last 6
WDWWLW
15 Aug
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–0
W
24 May
vs Poblense
0–0
D
17 May
vs Utebo
2–1
W
3 May
vs Almería II
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Estepona
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Melilla
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alcorcon – last 6
LLDWLL
18 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Mérida AD
1–2
L
12 Aug
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Getafe II
2–0
W
8 May
@ FC Cartagena
1–2
L
1 May
vs Europa Fc
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Águilas and Alcorcon.
Our pick is Águilas or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Águilas vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Águilas have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Alcorcon 23%.
How many goals will there be in Águilas vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Águilas vs Alcorcon?
Our predicted score is Águilas 1–1 Alcorcon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Águilas vs Alcorcon?
Águilas vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Rubial.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
