Value bet: Real Murcia to win @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultReal Murcia to win ✗63% · @1.70
Double chanceReal Murcia or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.86
Real Murcia vs Algeciras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Sunday 8 November: Real Murcia v Algeciras in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio Enrique Roca. In the table, Real Murcia are 3rd, among the top four, on 20 points after 11 matches; Algeciras are 13th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Real Murcia, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Antequera, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Algeciras, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Real Jaén, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Murcia 1.8 xG, Algeciras 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Murcia 63%, draw 23%, Algeciras 14%.
Lower-risk option: Real Murcia or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Real Murcia to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Murcia 1–0 Algeciras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Murcia63%fair 1.59 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.50
Algeciras14%fair 7.03 · @4.10
2.51Expected goals
1.79Real Murcia xG
0.72Algeciras xG
49%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Real Murcia 1.8 – 0.7 Algeciras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Murcia to win✗
63%
1.59
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Real Murcia or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.67
Draw no bet
Real Murcia (draw no bet)
82%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Real Murcia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Real Murcia to score first
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Real Murcia ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Murcia / FT Real Murcia✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.86
–
Recent results
Real Murcia – last 6
WLDWLW
1 Nov
@ Antequera
1–0
W
24 Oct
@ Juventud Torremolinos
0–1
L
18 Oct
vs Zaragoza
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Rayo Majadahonda
1–0
W
7 Oct
@ FC Cartagena
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs Gimnastic
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Algeciras – last 6
LWWLWW
2 Nov
@ Real Jaén
2–3
L
25 Oct
vs Real Madrid II
2–0
W
17 Oct
vs Hércules
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Europa Fc
1–2
L
4 Oct
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Murcia and Algeciras.
What is the prediction for Real Murcia vs Algeciras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Murcia vs Algeciras?
On our numbers Real Murcia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Algeciras 14%.
How many goals will there be in Real Murcia vs Algeciras?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Murcia vs Algeciras?
Our predicted score is Real Murcia 1–0 Algeciras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Real Murcia vs Algeciras?
Real Murcia vs Algeciras (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Enrique Roca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
