Value bet: Marino de Luanco to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMarino de Luanco to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.96
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.52
Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 19 September the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 brings Atlético Astorga against Marino de Luanco. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Atlético Astorga are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 10 matches; Marino de Luanco are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atlético Astorga, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Basconia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Marino de Luanco, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ourense CF, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Marino de Luanco, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Atlético Astorga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Astorga 1.2 xG, Marino de Luanco 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Astorga 37%, draw 23%, Marino de Luanco 40%.
Price worth noting: Marino de Luanco to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (58%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Astorga 1–1 Marino de Luanco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Astorga37%fair 2.72 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.00
Marino de Luanco40%fair 2.51 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.22Atlético Astorga xG
1.28Marino de Luanco xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Atlético Astorga 1.2 – 1.3 Marino de Luanco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marino de Luanco to win✗
40%
2.51
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
–
Draw no bet
Marino de Luanco (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Atlético Astorga +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Marino de Luanco to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marino de Luanco / FT Marino de Luanco✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.52
–
Recent results
Atlético Astorga – last 6
LLLWDL
13 Sep
@ Basconia
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Portugalete
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Palencia CF
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ La Bañeza
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marino de Luanco – last 6
LWLLWW
13 Sep
vs Ourense CF
0–2
L
6 Sep
@ Compostela
3–0
W
8 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–3
L
1 Aug
@ Sporting Gijón II
0–1
L
29 Jul
vs Real Avilés
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Sporting Gijon
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Astorga and Marino de Luanco.
What is the prediction for Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
On our numbers Atlético Astorga have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marino de Luanco 40%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
Our predicted score is Atlético Astorga 1–1 Marino de Luanco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
