Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Ourense CF to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultOurense CF to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceOurense CF or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Ourense CF vs Arosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arosa travel to face Ourense CF on Sunday 4 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio de O Couto the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Ourense CF are 10th, lower half, on 14 points after 10 matches; Arosa are 15th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Ourense CF, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Amorebieta, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Arosa, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 2–5 defeat to Deportivo Alavés II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ourense CF 2.2 xG, Arosa 1.2 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ourense CF 57%, draw 26%, Arosa 16%.
Lower-risk option: Ourense CF or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Ourense CF to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ourense CF or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ourense CF 2–1 Arosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ourense CF57%fair 1.74 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.10
Arosa16%fair 6.09 · @3.50
3.38Expected goals
2.20Ourense CF xG
1.18Arosa xG
57%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–07%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Ourense CF 2.2 – 1.2 Arosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ourense CF to win✗
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Ourense CF or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.85
Draw no bet
Ourense CF (draw no bet)
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Ourense CF -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
Ourense CF to score first✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Ourense CF ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ourense CF / FT Ourense CF✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Ourense CF – last 6
WLWWLL
26 Sep
@ Amorebieta
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Eibar II
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Marino de Luanco
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Basconia
2–1
W
21 Aug
@ Lugo
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Pontevedra
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arosa – last 6
LDLDWW
27 Sep
vs Deportivo Alavés II
2–5
L
19 Sep
@ Basconia
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ourense CF and Arosa.
Our pick is Ourense CF or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Arosa?
On our numbers Ourense CF have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Arosa 16%.
How many goals will there be in Ourense CF vs Arosa?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ourense CF vs Arosa?
Our predicted score is Ourense CF 2–1 Arosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Ourense CF vs Arosa?
Ourense CF vs Arosa (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
