Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSestao River to win ✓51% · @2.05
Double chanceSestao River or draw ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 18 October: Marino de Luanco v Sestao River in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1. In the table, Marino de Luanco are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Sestao River are 1st (leading the league) with 25. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Marino de Luanco, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Llanera, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Sestao River, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Salamanca UDS, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sestao River, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Marino de Luanco.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marino de Luanco 1.0 xG, Sestao River 1.5 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marino de Luanco 24%, draw 25%, Sestao River 51%.
Lower-risk option: Sestao River or draw (76%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sestao River or draw (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marino de Luanco24%fair 4.17 · @3.75
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.80
Sestao River51%fair 1.96 · @2.05
2.50Expected goals
0.96Marino de Luanco xG
1.54Sestao River xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
1–29%
0–08%
1–08%
From our goals model: Marino de Luanco 1.0 – 1.5 Sestao River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sestao River to win✓
51%
1.96
2.05
Double chance
Sestao River or draw✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Sestao River (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Marino de Luanco +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Sestao River to score first✓
56%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sestao River / FT Sestao River✗
30%
3.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.71
–
Recent results
Marino de Luanco – last 6
LWLLLW
10 Oct
@ Llanera
2–4
L
3 Oct
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs Basconia
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Atlético Astorga
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs Ourense CF
0–2
L
6 Sep
@ Compostela
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sestao River – last 6
WDWWWL
14 Oct
vs Salamanca UDS
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Gimnástica Torrelavega
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Gernika
2–1
W
30 Sep
vs Terrassa
4–1
W
26 Sep
vs Atlético Astorga
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Compostela
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marino de Luanco and Sestao River.
What is the prediction for Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River?
Our pick is Sestao River or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River?
On our numbers Marino de Luanco have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sestao River 51%.
How many goals will there be in Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River?
Our predicted score is Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River?
Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
