Value bet: Peña Sport to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPeña Sport to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.04
Calamocha vs Peña Sport: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Calamocha welcome Peña Sport to Municipal de Tarazona for a Segunda División RFEF Group 2 fixture on Sunday 18 October (15:30 WAT). In the table, Calamocha are 18th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 10 matches; Peña Sport are 11th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Calamocha, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ebro, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Peña Sport, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Náxara, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Peña Sport, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Calamocha.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Calamocha 1.3 xG, Peña Sport 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Calamocha 32%, draw 25%, Peña Sport 44%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Peña Sport to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Calamocha 1–1 Peña Sport. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Calamocha32%fair 3.16 · @2.75
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @2.80
Peña Sport44%fair 2.30 · @2.50
2.83Expected goals
1.28Calamocha xG
1.55Peña Sport xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Calamocha 1.3 – 1.5 Peña Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Peña Sport to win✗
44%
2.30
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.80
Draw no bet
Peña Sport (draw no bet)
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Calamocha +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Peña Sport to score first✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Peña Sport / FT Peña Sport✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Calamocha – last 6
LLLWLD
10 Oct
@ Ebro
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Osasuna II
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Tudelano
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs UD Logroñés II
3–2
W
13 Sep
@ Espanyol II
0–5
L
19 Apr
@ Cuarte
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Peña Sport – last 6
LWLWLD
10 Oct
@ Náxara
0–1
L
3 Oct
vs SD Logroñés
4–0
W
26 Sep
@ Barcelona B
0–4
L
19 Sep
vs Espanyol II
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Manresa
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Utebo
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Calamocha and Peña Sport.
What is the prediction for Calamocha vs Peña Sport?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Calamocha vs Peña Sport?
On our numbers Calamocha have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Peña Sport 44%.
How many goals will there be in Calamocha vs Peña Sport?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Calamocha vs Peña Sport?
Our predicted score is Calamocha 1–1 Peña Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Calamocha vs Peña Sport?
Calamocha vs Peña Sport (Segunda División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Tarazona.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
