Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +59%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗53% · @3.00
Double chanceLa Nucía or draw ✓78% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗12% · fair 8.30
La Nucía vs Poblense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Poblense travel to face La Nucía on Sunday 6 September in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 – the ball rolls at 10:30 WAT. In the table, La Nucía are 5th, upper half, on 15 points after 9 matches; Poblense are 11th (lower half) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
La Nucía, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Alcoyano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Poblense, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Atlético Baleares, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Poblense, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for La Nucía.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give La Nucía 1.1 xG, Poblense 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – La Nucía 25%, draw 53%, Poblense 22%.
Lower-risk option: La Nucía or draw (78%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was La Nucía or draw (78%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.29, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: La Nucía 1–1 Poblense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
La Nucía25%fair 4.06 · @2.45
Draw53%fair 1.89 · @3.00
Poblense22%fair 4.46 · @2.62
2.12Expected goals
1.08La Nucía xG
1.04Poblense xG
43%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: La Nucía 1.1 – 1.0 Poblense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
53%
1.89
3.00 ▲
Double chance
La Nucía or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
–
Draw no bet
La Nucía (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Poblense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
La Nucía to score first✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
12%
8.30
–
Recent results
La Nucía – last 6
LWDDWL
8 Aug
vs Alcoyano
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Trival Valderas
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Trival Valderas
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ Levante II
1–1
D
31 May
vs Levante II
1–0
W
24 May
@ Saguntino
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Poblense – last 6
WDWWLW
14 Aug
vs Atlético Baleares
1–0
W
24 May
@ Águilas
0–0
D
17 May
vs Numancia
2–1
W
10 May
@ Numancia
1–0
W
3 May
@ Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1–3
L
26 Apr
vs Porreres
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Nucía and Poblense.
Our pick is La Nucía or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win La Nucía vs Poblense?
On our numbers La Nucía have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Poblense 22%.
How many goals will there be in La Nucía vs Poblense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Nucía vs Poblense?
Our predicted score is La Nucía 1–1 Poblense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is La Nucía vs Poblense?
La Nucía vs Poblense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
