FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 07 Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗62% · @1.66

Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✓85% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

FSV Mainz 05 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Mewa Arena for a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday 29 August (14:30 WAT). In the table, FSV Mainz 05 are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 9 matches; SC Paderborn 07 are 13th (lower half) with 10. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

FSV Mainz 05, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 9–0 win over Krieschow, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 3.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

SC Paderborn 07, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Phönix Lübeck, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours FSV Mainz 05, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for SC Paderborn 07.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FSV Mainz 05 2.0 xG, SC Paderborn 07 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – FSV Mainz 05 62%, draw 23%, SC Paderborn 07 15%.
Lower-risk option: FSV Mainz 05 or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FSV Mainz 0562%fair 1.62 · @1.66

Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.90

SC Paderborn 0715%fair 6.47 · @4.75

2.98Expected goals

2.04FSV Mainz 05 xG

0.94SC Paderborn 07 xG

61%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%

1–010%

2–110%

1–110%

3–07%

3–17%

From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 2.0 – 0.9 SC Paderborn 07 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	FSV Mainz 05 to win ✗	62%	1.62	1.66
Double chance	FSV Mainz 05 or draw ✓	85%	1.18	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	61%	1.63	1.62
Draw no bet	FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet)	80%	1.25	–
Asian handicap	FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	79%	1.27	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.75	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	64%	1.56	1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	80%	1.24	1.20
First team to score	FSV Mainz 05 to score first ✗	65%	1.54	–
Half-time result	FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time ✗	46%	2.19	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05 ✗	40%	2.49	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.07	–

FSV Mainz 05 – last 6

WWWDWW

23 Aug	@ Krieschow	9–0	W
15 Aug	vs Bournemouth	2–1	W
8 Aug	vs Paris FC	4–0	W
1 Aug	@ Udinese	3–3	D
31 Jul	vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1–0	W
25 Jul	vs Holstein Kiel	3–0	W

3.7Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07 – last 6

WDWDDW

23 Aug	@ Phönix Lübeck	4–2	W
8 Aug	@ Werder Bremen	2–2	D
1 Aug	@ VfL Osnabrück	2–0	W
25 May	vs VfL Wolfsburg	1–1	D
21 May	@ VfL Wolfsburg	0–0	D
17 May	@ SV Darmstadt 98	2–0	W

1.8Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4

Team

Pts

+20

+10

+14

-1

-1

-5

-10

-1

-3

-4

-14

-6

Borussia Mönchengladbach

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and SC Paderborn 07 15%.

How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 07: numbers & prediction