VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Expected Goals (19 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultVfB Stuttgart to win ✗40% · @2.38

Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.36

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.56

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:30 WAT, Saturday 19 September: VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, played at MHP Arena. In the table, VfB Stuttgart are 8th, upper half, on 12 points after 9 matches; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd (among the top four) with 21.

Current form

VfB Stuttgart, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to 1899 Hoffenheim, away. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Borussia Dortmund, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over SC Paderborn 07, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Borussia Dortmund, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for VfB Stuttgart.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give VfB Stuttgart 2.0 xG, Borussia Dortmund 2.0 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 69% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – VfB Stuttgart 40%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 39%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.36.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

VfB Stuttgart40%fair 2.50 · @2.38

Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.60

Borussia Dortmund39%fair 2.56 · @2.62

4.00Expected goals

2.01VfB Stuttgart xG

1.99Borussia Dortmund xG

69%Both score

76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–17%

1–17%

2–27%

1–27%

3–15%

3–25%

From our goals model: VfB Stuttgart 2.0 – 2.0 Borussia Dortmund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	VfB Stuttgart to win ✗	40%	2.50	2.38
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	79%	1.26	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	69%	1.45	1.36
Draw no bet	VfB Stuttgart (draw no bet) ✗	51%	1.97	–
Asian handicap	Borussia Dortmund +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	91%	1.10	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	76%	1.31	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✗	57%	1.77	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	63%	1.59	–
First team to score	VfB Stuttgart to score first ✗	49%	2.02	–
Half-time result	VfB Stuttgart ahead at half-time ✗	34%	2.97	–
Half-time / full-time	HT VfB Stuttgart / FT VfB Stuttgart ✗	25%	4.07	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	7%	13.56	–

VfB Stuttgart – last 6

LWWLWL

12 Sep	@ 1899 Hoffenheim	1–2	L
9 Sep	vs Viking	3–1	W
4 Sep	vs 1. FC Köln	4–1	W
28 Aug	@ Bayern München	1–5	L
21 Aug	@ Hansa Rostock	4–0	W
15 Aug	@ Fulham	0–1	L

2.2Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund – last 6

WWWWWL

12 Sep	vs SC Paderborn 07	3–0	W
8 Sep	vs Villarreal	3–2	W
5 Sep	@ 1899 Hoffenheim	3–2	W
1 Sep	@ HEBC	5–0	W
29 Aug	vs Hamburger SV	2–0	W
22 Aug	vs Bayern München	1–2	L

2.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4

Team

Pts

+20

+10

+14

-1

-1

-5

-10

-1

-3

-4

-14

-6

Borussia Mönchengladbach

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

On our numbers VfB Stuttgart have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Borussia Dortmund 39%.

How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our predicted score is VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at MHP Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund: numbers & prediction