Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗65% · @1.70
Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✗87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.53
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FSV Mainz 05 welcome Werder Bremen to Mewa Arena for a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday 24 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, FSV Mainz 05 are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 9 matches; Werder Bremen are 6th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
FSV Mainz 05, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Schalke 04, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Werder Bremen, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with SC Paderborn 07, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours FSV Mainz 05, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Werder Bremen.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FSV Mainz 05 2.7 xG, Werder Bremen 1.3 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FSV Mainz 05 65%, draw 22%, Werder Bremen 13%.
Lower-risk option: FSV Mainz 05 or draw (87%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FSV Mainz 05 or draw (87%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FSV Mainz 0565%fair 1.53 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.90
Werder Bremen13%fair 7.68 · @4.00
4.00Expected goals
2.73FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.27Werder Bremen xG
65%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–16%
3–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 2.7 – 1.3 Werder Bremen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our pick is FSV Mainz 05 or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Werder Bremen 13%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
