Maritimo vs Casa Pia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Saturday 8 August: Maritimo v Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, played at Estadio do Maritimo. In the table, Maritimo are 15th, lower half, on 8 points after 10 matches; Casa Pia are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Maritimo, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estrela, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 6. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Casa Pia, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 2–6 defeat to Leixoes, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Maritimo 1.4 xG, Casa Pia 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Maritimo 38%, draw 25%, Casa Pia 36%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Maritimo 1–1 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Maritimo38%fair 2.62 · @2.44
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.45
Casa Pia36%fair 2.75 · @2.70
2.53Expected goals
1.36Maritimo xG
1.17Casa Pia xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Maritimo 1.4 – 1.2 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maritimo to win✓
38%
2.62
2.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.73
Draw no bet
Maritimo (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Maritimo to score first✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maritimo / FT Maritimo✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.60
–
Recent results
Maritimo – last 6
DDWLWW
29 Jul
vs Estrela
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Machico
0–0
D
22 Jul
vs Camacha
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs Leixoes
1–5
L
14 Jul
vs AVS
2–0
W
1 May
vs Leixoes
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LLWWDW
1 Aug
@ Leixoes
2–6
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–1
L
18 Jul
@ Estrela
2–1
W
28 May
vs Torreense
2–0
W
20 May
@ Torreense
0–0
D
11 May
@ Guimaraes
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maritimo and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Maritimo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Casa Pia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Maritimo 1–1 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Maritimo vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Maritimo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
