Guimaraes vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arouca travel to face Guimaraes on Saturday 8 August in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Guimaraes are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Arouca are 5th (upper half) with 20.
Current form
Guimaraes, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Chaves, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Arouca, last 5: WLDDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Lusitânia Lourosa, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 6. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guimaraes 1.3 xG, Arouca 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guimaraes 49%, draw 28%, Arouca 24%.
Lower-risk option: Guimaraes or draw (76%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guimaraes 1–0 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guimaraes49%fair 2.06 · @1.90
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @3.50
Arouca24%fair 4.25 · @3.90
2.27Expected goals
1.35Guimaraes xG
0.93Arouca xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Guimaraes 1.3 – 0.9 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guimaraes to win✗
49%
2.06
1.90
Double chance
Guimaraes or draw✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.73
Draw no bet
Guimaraes (draw no bet)✗
67%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Arouca +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.11
First team to score
Guimaraes to score first✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guimaraes / FT Guimaraes✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.57
–
Recent results
Guimaraes – last 6
WDWWLL
1 Aug
vs Chaves
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
24 Jul
@ Al-Ahli Jeddah
3–1
W
18 Jul
vs Academica
2–0
W
11 May
vs Casa Pia
0–1
L
4 May
@ Sporting CP
1–5
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 6
WLDDLW
1 Aug
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–3
L
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Feirense
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
11 May
@ GIL Vicente
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guimaraes and Arouca.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Arouca?
On our numbers Guimaraes have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Arouca 24%.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Guimaraes 1–0 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Guimaraes vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
