Value bet: Moreirense to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArouca to win ✓43% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Arouca vs Moreirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arouca welcome Moreirense to Estádio Municipal de Arouca for a Primeira Liga fixture on Sunday 16 August (18:00 WAT). In the table, Arouca are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 11 matches; Moreirense are 9th (upper half) with 14.
Current form
Arouca, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Guimaraes, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Moreirense, last 5: DLWDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with SC Braga, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arouca 1.3 xG, Moreirense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arouca 43%, draw 23%, Moreirense 34%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Moreirense to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arouca 1–1 Moreirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arouca43%fair 2.31 · @2.08
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.25
Moreirense34%fair 2.94 · @3.50
2.48Expected goals
1.34Arouca xG
1.14Moreirense xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.3 – 1.1 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
43%
2.31
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Arouca (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Moreirense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Arouca to score first✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✓
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.68
–
Recent results
Arouca – last 6
WWLDDL
8 Aug
@ Guimaraes
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–3
L
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Feirense
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 6
DLWDLD
9 Aug
vs SC Braga
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Amarante
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ GIL Vicente
2–2
D
22 Jul
@ Santa Clara
1–2
L
18 Jul
vs AVS
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Moreirense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arouca vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Arouca have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Moreirense 34%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Moreirense?
Arouca vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
