Value bet: Estoril to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEstoril to win ✗41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.48
Nacional vs Estoril: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estoril travel to face Nacional on Sunday 16 August in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio da Madeira the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Nacional are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Estoril are 18th (in the drop zone) with 2.
Current form
Nacional, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Santa Clara, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Estoril, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Famalicao, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Nacional 0–1 Estoril.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional 1.4 xG, Estoril 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional 36%, draw 23%, Estoril 41%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Estoril to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional 1–1 Estoril. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional36%fair 2.78 · @2.60
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
Estoril41%fair 2.41 · @2.60
2.85Expected goals
1.36Nacional xG
1.49Estoril xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.4 – 1.5 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Nacional vs Estoril?
On our numbers Nacional have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Estoril 41%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Estoril?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Estoril?
Nacional vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
