Value bet: Nacional to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFamalicao to win ✓48% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.09
Nacional vs Famalicao: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Famalicao travel to face Nacional on Saturday 19 September in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio da Madeira the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Nacional are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Famalicao are 10th (lower half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nacional, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Alverca, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Famalicao, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sporting CP, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional 1.1 xG, Famalicao 1.4 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional 30%, draw 23%, Famalicao 48%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Nacional to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional 1–1 Famalicao. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional30%fair 3.38 · @3.60
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.20
Famalicao48%fair 2.10 · @2.00
2.50Expected goals
1.06Nacional xG
1.44Famalicao xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–29%
1–09%
0–29%
0–08%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.1 – 1.4 Famalicao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✓
48%
2.10
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Draw no bet
Famalicao (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Nacional +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Famalicao to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✓
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.09
–
Recent results
Nacional – last 6
LLLLWD
12 Sep
vs Alverca
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Sporting CP
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Famalicao – last 6
DDDLLD
13 Sep
vs Sporting CP
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Estrela
2–2
D
30 Aug
vs GIL Vicente
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Santa Clara
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Maritimo
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Estoril
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and Famalicao.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Nacional vs Famalicao?
On our numbers Nacional have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Famalicao 48%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Famalicao?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Famalicao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Famalicao?
Nacional vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
