Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✓73% · @1.22
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓92% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.07
Estrela vs Benfica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estrela welcome Benfica for a Primeira Liga fixture on Sunday 8 November (21:30 WAT). In the table, Estrela are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Benfica are 2nd (among the top four) with 28. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Estrela, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Moreirense, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Benfica, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Lech Poznan, at home. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.7 for Estrela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estrela 0.9 xG, Benfica 2.7 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estrela 8%, draw 19%, Benfica 73%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Benfica to win (73%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estrela 0–2 Benfica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estrela8%fair 13.00 · @11.00
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @6.50
Benfica73%fair 1.37 · @1.22
3.52Expected goals
0.87Estrela xG
2.65Benfica xG
60%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
0–39%
1–29%
1–38%
0–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Estrela 0.9 – 2.7 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.11
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.36
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
52%
1.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.07
–
Recent results
Estrela – last 6
LLWLLD
31 Oct
@ Moreirense
1–2
L
24 Oct
vs Casa Pia
0–2
L
17 Oct
@ Fazendense
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Arouca
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Academico Viseu
0–2
L
14 Sep
@ Rio Ave
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWW
5 Nov
vs Lech Poznan
3–1
W
2 Nov
vs Alverca
1–0
W
29 Oct
vs GIL Vicente
4–1
W
26 Oct
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
22 Oct
@ Omonia Nicosia
4–1
W
15 Oct
vs Celtic
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Benfica.
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
On our numbers Estrela have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Benfica 73%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Estrela 0–2 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
