Caernarfon Town vs Penybont: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penybont travel to face Caernarfon Town on Friday 7 August in the Premier League, with The Oval the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Caernarfon Town are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Penybont are 3rd (among the top four) with 36.
Current form
Caernarfon Town, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over GAP Connah S Quay FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Penybont, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with The New Saints, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Caernarfon Town, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.2 for Penybont.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caernarfon Town 1.4 xG, Penybont 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caernarfon Town 50%, draw 24%, Penybont 27%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caernarfon Town 1–1 Penybont. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caernarfon Town50%fair 2.01 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.50
Penybont27%fair 3.75 · @3.55
2.59Expected goals
1.44Caernarfon Town xG
1.15Penybont xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Caernarfon Town 1.4 – 1.1 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caernarfon Town to win✗
50%
2.01
1.85
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Draw no bet
Caernarfon Town (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Penybont +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Caernarfon Town to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caernarfon Town / FT Caernarfon Town✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Recent results
Caernarfon Town – last 6
WLLWWL
2 Aug
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
2–1
W
16 Jul
@ FC Levadia Tallinn
0–5
L
9 Jul
vs FC Levadia Tallinn
0–5
L
20 Jun
@ Glentoran
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Colwyn Bay
2–0
W
27 Mar
vs The New Saints
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
DLLLLL
2 Aug
vs The New Saints
0–0
D
16 Jul
@ FC Santa Coloma
0–3
L
9 Jul
vs FC Santa Coloma
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Barry Town
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Barry Town
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Colwyn Bay
1–3
L
0.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caernarfon Town and Penybont.
What is the prediction for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
On our numbers Caernarfon Town have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penybont 27%.
How many goals will there be in Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Caernarfon Town 1–1 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
Caernarfon Town vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The Oval.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
