Value bet: Academica to win @ 3.80 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChaves to win ✗44% · @1.93
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.25
Chaves vs Academica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chaves welcome Academica to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira for a Segunda Liga fixture on Saturday 8 August (11:00 WAT). In the table, Chaves are 17th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Academica are 6th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Chaves, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Guimaraes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Academica, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Caldas, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 6. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Chaves, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Academica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chaves 1.4 xG, Academica 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chaves 44%, draw 25%, Academica 31%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Academica to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chaves 1–1 Academica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chaves44%fair 2.29 · @1.93
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.25
Academica31%fair 3.19 · @3.80
2.90Expected goals
1.41Chaves xG
1.49Academica xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Chaves 1.4 – 1.5 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chaves
Academica
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
-2%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
+40%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.29
1.96
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chaves to win✗
44%
2.29
1.93
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Chaves (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Chaves +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Academica to score first✓
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.25
–
Recent results
Chaves – last 6
LLWLWW
1 Aug
@ Guimaraes
0–2
L
25 Jul
vs Guimaraes B
2–3
L
22 Jul
vs Amarante
2–1
W
18 Jul
@ Vizela
0–1
L
15 Jul
vs Fafe
4–1
W
11 Jul
@ AVS
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Academica – last 6
DDWLLL
1 Aug
@ Caldas
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ União Santarém
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ FC Porto B
3–1
W
22 Jul
@ Tondela
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Guimaraes
0–2
L
15 Jul
@ Torreense
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Academica.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Chaves vs Academica?
On our numbers Chaves have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Academica 31%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Academica?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Academica?
Our predicted score is Chaves 1–1 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Academica?
Chaves vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
