Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 1.88 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win ✗57% · @1.88
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Penafiel vs Portimonense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 8 August the Segunda Liga brings Penafiel against Portimonense at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Penafiel are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 10 matches; Portimonense are 10th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Penafiel, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Leganes, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Portimonense, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Nottingham Forest, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.7 xG, Portimonense 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 57%, draw 24%, Portimonense 19%.
Lower-risk option: Penafiel or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penafiel or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–0 Portimonense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penafiel57%fair 1.76 · @1.88
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.40
Portimonense19%fair 5.24 · @3.80
2.62Expected goals
1.74Penafiel xG
0.89Portimonense xG
54%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.7 – 0.9 Portimonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penafiel
Portimonense
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+48%
-25%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
-11%
Our expected goals here
1.76
0.88
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✗
57%
1.76
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Penafiel or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.77
Draw no bet
Penafiel (draw no bet)✗
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Portimonense +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.31
–
Recent results
Penafiel – last 6
LDLLWW
24 Jul
vs Leganes
0–2
L
18 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
17 May
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–2
L
4 May
@ Torreense
2–3
L
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Portimonense – last 6
LLWWLW
31 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
1–2
L
15 Jul
vs Rio Ave
0–3
L
17 May
vs Farense
1–0
W
3 May
vs Chaves
3–2
W
25 Apr
@ Leixoes
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Portimonense.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Portimonense?
Our pick is Penafiel or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Penafiel vs Portimonense?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Portimonense 19%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Portimonense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Portimonense?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 Portimonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Portimonense?
Penafiel vs Portimonense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
