Tondela vs Amarante: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 8 August the Segunda Liga brings Tondela against Amarante. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Tondela are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Amarante are 14th (lower half) with 9.
Current form
Tondela, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Rio Ave, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Amarante, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Moreirense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tondela 1.5 xG, Amarante 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tondela 55%, draw 26%, Amarante 20%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tondela 1–0 Amarante. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tondela55%fair 1.83 · @1.64
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.65
Amarante20%fair 5.09 · @4.85
2.40Expected goals
1.52Tondela xG
0.88Amarante xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.5 – 0.9 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tondela
Amarante
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+5%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.42
0.93
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win✓
55%
1.83
1.64
Double chance
Tondela or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.00
Draw no bet
Tondela (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Amarante +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Tondela to score first
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela✓
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Tondela – last 6
LDLLWD
1 Aug
@ Rio Ave
1–3
L
29 Jul
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Beira-Mar
1–2
L
25 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Academica
2–1
W
19 Jul
vs Nacional
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Amarante – last 6
LLWDWD
1 Aug
@ Moreirense
0–2
L
22 Jul
@ Chaves
1–2
L
10 May
vs União Santarém
1–0
W
1 May
@ Trofense
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Mafra
4–1
W
29 Mar
vs Academica
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Amarante.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tondela vs Amarante?
On our numbers Tondela have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Amarante 20%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Amarante?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Amarante?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–0 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Amarante?
Tondela vs Amarante (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
