Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 2.58 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLusitânia Lourosa to win ✓42% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.92
Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Amarante v Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga, played at Amarante Stadium. In the table, Amarante are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 10 matches; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Amarante, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Tondela, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Lusitânia Lourosa, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over FC Porto B, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Amarante 1.2 xG, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Amarante 36%, draw 23%, Lusitânia Lourosa 42%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @2.58 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Amarante 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Amarante36%fair 2.82 · @2.54
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
Lusitânia Lourosa42%fair 2.39 · @2.58
2.48Expected goals
1.17Amarante xG
1.31Lusitânia Lourosa xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Amarante 1.2 – 1.3 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusitânia Lourosa to win✓
42%
2.39
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.80
Draw no bet
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Amarante +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Lusitânia Lourosa to score first✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lusitânia Lourosa / FT Lusitânia Lourosa✓
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.92
–
Recent results
Amarante – last 6
LLLWDW
8 Aug
@ Tondela
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Moreirense
0–2
L
22 Jul
@ Chaves
1–2
L
10 May
vs União Santarém
1–0
W
1 May
@ Trofense
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Mafra
4–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
WLLDDW
10 Aug
vs FC Porto B
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Paredes
2–4
L
1 Aug
vs Arouca
0–2
L
29 Jul
@ Leça
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs FC Porto B
3–3
D
25 Jul
vs Academico Viseu
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amarante and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Amarante have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lusitânia Lourosa 42%.
How many goals will there be in Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Amarante 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Amarante Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
