Leixoes v Tondela Prediction & Expected Goals (16 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultTondela to win ✗40% · @2.75

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.78

Leixoes vs Tondela: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Leixoes welcome Tondela to Estádio do Mar for a Segunda Liga fixture on Sunday 16 August (15:30 WAT). In the table, Leixoes are 12th, lower half, on 11 points after 10 matches; Tondela are 7th (upper half) with 16.

Current form

Leixoes, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Benfica B, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Tondela, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Amarante, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Leixoes, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Tondela.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Leixoes 1.1 xG, Tondela 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Leixoes 36%, draw 23%, Tondela 40%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Tondela to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leixoes 1–1 Tondela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Leixoes36%fair 2.76 · @2.50

Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05

Tondela40%fair 2.48 · @2.75

2.28Expected goals

1.10Leixoes xG

1.18Tondela xG

58%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–112%

1–011%

0–010%

1–28%

2–17%

From our goals model: Leixoes 1.1 – 1.2 Tondela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Tondela to win ✗	40%	2.48	2.75 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.31	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	58%	1.72	1.70
Draw no bet	Tondela (draw no bet) ✗	53%	1.90	–
Asian handicap	Leixoes +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	62%	1.61	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	68%	1.47	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	57%	1.77	1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	77%	1.31	1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
First team to score	Tondela to score first ✗	46%	2.15	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	47%	2.15	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Tondela / FT Tondela ✗	21%	4.67	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	12.78	–

Leixoes – last 6

LWWDWW

10 Aug	@ Benfica B	0–1	L
1 Aug	vs Casa Pia	6–2	W
29 Jul	vs Vizela	3–2	W
18 Jul	@ Nacional	3–3	D
17 Jul	@ Maritimo	5–1	W
17 May	vs Lusitânia Lourosa	2–1	W

3.2Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Tondela – last 6

WLDLLW

8 Aug	vs Amarante	2–1	W
1 Aug	@ Rio Ave	1–3	L
29 Jul	vs São João Ver	1–1	D
25 Jul	vs Beira-Mar	1–2	L
25 Jul	@ Famalicao	0–1	L
22 Jul	vs Academica	2–1	W

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penafiel	10	7	1	2	+12	22
2	Sporting CP B	10	7	1	2	+8	22
3	Benfica B	10	6	2	2	+6	20
4	Lusitânia Lourosa	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	União de Leiria	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Academica	10	5	1	4	+3	16
7	Tondela	10	5	1	4	+2	16
8	Farense	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Vizela	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Portimonense	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	AVS	10	3	4	3	+1	13
12	Leixoes	10	3	2	5	-4	11
13	Torreense	10	2	4	4	-3	10
14	Amarante	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Felgueiras 1932	10	1	5	4	-3	8
16	FC Porto B	10	2	2	6	-10	8
17	Chaves	10	2	2	6	-10	8
18	Feirense	10	1	2	7	-8	5

Team

Pts

+12

-3

-4

-3

-4

-3

-10

-10

-8

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Leixoes vs Tondela?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Leixoes vs Tondela?

On our numbers Leixoes have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tondela 40%.

How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Tondela?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Tondela?

Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 Tondela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Leixoes vs Tondela?

Leixoes vs Tondela (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Mar.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Leixoes v Tondela: numbers & prediction