Value bet: Torreense to win @ 1.74 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTorreense to win ✗65% · @1.74
Double chanceTorreense or draw ✓88% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.85
Torreense vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penafiel travel to face Torreense on Saturday 15 August in the Segunda Liga, with Estadio Manuel Marques the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Torreense are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Torreense, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Farense, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Penafiel, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Portimonense, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (4 May 2026) it ended Torreense 3–2 Penafiel.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Torreense 1.7 xG, Penafiel 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Torreense 65%, draw 23%, Penafiel 12%.
Lower-risk option: Torreense or draw (88%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Torreense to win @1.74 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Torreense 1–0 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Torreense65%fair 1.54 · @1.74
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.40
Penafiel12%fair 8.45 · @4.55
2.25Expected goals
1.69Torreense xG
0.56Penafiel xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Torreense 1.7 – 0.6 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Torreense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Torreense have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penafiel 12%.
How many goals will there be in Torreense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torreense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Torreense 1–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Torreense vs Penafiel?
Torreense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Marques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
