Amarante vs Portimonense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Amarante welcome Portimonense to Municipal de Amarante for a Segunda Liga fixture on Saturday 10 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Amarante are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 10 matches; Portimonense are 10th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Amarante, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ponte da Barca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Portimonense, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Castro Daire, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Amarante 1.0 xG, Portimonense 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Amarante 40%, draw 25%, Portimonense 36%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.87, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Amarante 1–1 Portimonense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Amarante40%fair 2.52 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @2.80
Portimonense36%fair 2.82 · @2.75
1.92Expected goals
1.00Amarante xG
0.92Portimonense xG
54%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–015%
1–015%
0–113%
1–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Amarante 1.0 – 0.9 Portimonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Amarante to win✗
40%
2.52
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.91
Draw no bet
Amarante (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Portimonense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Amarante to score first
44%
2.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.83
–
Recent results
Amarante – last 6
WDLWDL
20 Sep
@ Ponte da Barca
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs União de Leiria
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Leixoes
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Vizela
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Portimonense – last 6
WLLLDW
19 Sep
@ Castro Daire
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Tondela
0–2
L
6 Sep
@ União de Leiria
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Leixoes
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Benfica B
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Vizela
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amarante and Portimonense.
What is the prediction for Amarante vs Portimonense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Amarante vs Portimonense?
On our numbers Amarante have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Portimonense 36%.
How many goals will there be in Amarante vs Portimonense?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amarante vs Portimonense?
Our predicted score is Amarante 1–1 Portimonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Amarante vs Portimonense?
Amarante vs Portimonense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Amarante.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
