União de Leiria 61%Draw 22%Academica 18%Expected goals 1.96 – 0.96
82%
Betarazi pick
União de Leiria or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: União de Leiria to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUnião de Leiria to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceUnião de Leiria or draw ✗82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
União de Leiria vs Academica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
União de Leiria welcome Academica to Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa for a Segunda Liga fixture on Sunday 11 October (18:00 WAT). In the table, União de Leiria are 5th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Academica are 6th (upper half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
União de Leiria, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over O Elvas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Academica, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Real, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours União de Leiria, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Academica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give União de Leiria 2.0 xG, Academica 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – União de Leiria 61%, draw 22%, Academica 18%.
Lower-risk option: União de Leiria or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: União de Leiria to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was União de Leiria or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: União de Leiria 1–0 Academica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
União de Leiria61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.30
Academica18%fair 5.63 · @3.60
2.92Expected goals
1.96União de Leiria xG
0.96Academica xG
56%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–010%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: União de Leiria 2.0 – 1.0 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União de Leiria to win✗
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
União de Leiria or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.75
Draw no bet
União de Leiria (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
União de Leiria -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
União de Leiria to score first✗
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
União de Leiria ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União de Leiria / FT União de Leiria✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
União de Leiria – last 6
WDWWWL
19 Sep
@ O Elvas
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Amarante
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Portimonense
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Tondela
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Leixoes
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Academica – last 6
WLLLWW
18 Sep
@ Real
4–1
W
11 Sep
vs Benfica B
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Penafiel
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Tondela
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Feirense
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União de Leiria and Academica.
What is the prediction for União de Leiria vs Academica?
Our pick is União de Leiria or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win União de Leiria vs Academica?
On our numbers União de Leiria have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Academica 18%.
How many goals will there be in União de Leiria vs Academica?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União de Leiria vs Academica?
Our predicted score is União de Leiria 1–0 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is União de Leiria vs Academica?
União de Leiria vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
