Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Segunda Liga brings Lusitânia Lourosa against Chaves at Estadio Do Lusitania. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Chaves are 17th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Lusitânia Lourosa, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Madalena, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Chaves, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Farense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lusitânia Lourosa, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Chaves.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lusitânia Lourosa 1.4 xG, Chaves 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lusitânia Lourosa 44%, draw 23%, Chaves 33%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lusitânia Lourosa44%fair 2.25 · @2.35
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.20
Chaves33%fair 3.05 · @2.80
2.61Expected goals
1.43Lusitânia Lourosa xG
1.18Chaves xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lusitânia Lourosa 1.4 – 1.2 Chaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusitânia Lourosa to win✗
44%
2.25
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Draw no bet
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw no bet)
58%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Chaves +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Lusitânia Lourosa to score first✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lusitânia Lourosa / FT Lusitânia Lourosa✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.28
–
Recent results
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
WWWWDW
20 Sep
@ Madalena
3–1
W
14 Sep
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
7 Sep
vs AVS
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Academica
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Torreense
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Amarante
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chaves – last 6
LWWLDL
4 Oct
@ Farense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Guarda
3–2
W
13 Sep
vs Feirense
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs AVS
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Sporting CP B
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves.
What is the prediction for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
On our numbers Lusitânia Lourosa have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chaves 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
Our predicted score is Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do Lusitania.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
