Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 2.94 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win ✓39% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.98
Chaves vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 November the Segunda Liga brings Chaves against Penafiel at Estadio Municipal de Chaves. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Chaves are 17th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Chaves, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Benfica B, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Penafiel, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Feirense, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chaves 1.4 xG, Penafiel 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chaves 39%, draw 23%, Penafiel 39%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @2.94 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chaves 1–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chaves39%fair 2.59 · @2.27
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.28
Penafiel39%fair 2.57 · @2.94
2.78Expected goals
1.39Chaves xG
1.39Penafiel xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Chaves 1.4 – 1.4 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✓
39%
2.57
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.75
Draw no bet
Penafiel (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Chaves +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.76
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.23
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.04
First team to score
Penafiel to score first
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.98
–
Recent results
Chaves – last 6
LWWDLW
31 Oct
@ Benfica B
1–3
L
23 Oct
vs Vizela
2–1
W
16 Oct
vs Os Marialvas
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Farense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Guarda
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
WWLLWW
2 Nov
vs Feirense
1–0
W
24 Oct
@ Farense
4–1
W
17 Oct
vs Leça
0–1
L
9 Oct
vs AVS
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Penafiel.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Chaves vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Chaves have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penafiel 39%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Chaves 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Penafiel?
Chaves vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
