Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Saturday 8 August: Newtown AFC v Penrhyncoch in the FAW Championship, played at Latham Park. In the table, Newtown AFC are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 13 matches; Penrhyncoch are 16th (in the drop zone) with 1. There are 29 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Newtown AFC, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Gresford Athletic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Penrhyncoch, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Porthmadog, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newtown AFC 2.5 xG, Penrhyncoch 0.7 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newtown AFC 68%, draw 18%, Penrhyncoch 13%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Newtown AFC to win (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newtown AFC 2–0 Penrhyncoch. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newtown AFC68%fair 1.46 · @1.44
Draw18%fair 5.45 · @3.90
Penrhyncoch13%fair 7.56 · @5.00
3.23Expected goals
2.49Newtown AFC xG
0.74Penrhyncoch xG
57%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
3–010%
1–010%
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Newtown AFC 2.5 – 0.7 Penrhyncoch expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Newtown AFC
Penrhyncoch
Attack vs FAW Championship average
-6%
-53%
Goals conceded vs average
-44%
+52%
Our expected goals here
2.58
0.44
Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newtown AFC to win✓
68%
1.46
1.44
Double chance
Newtown AFC or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.57
Draw no bet
Newtown AFC (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Newtown AFC -1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
First team to score
Newtown AFC to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Newtown AFC ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newtown AFC / FT Newtown AFC✓
52%
1.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.02
–
Recent results
Newtown AFC – last 6
WLLWLL
2 Aug
@ Gresford Athletic
3–0
W
8 Apr
@ Holywell
0–6
L
3 Apr
vs Mold Alexandra
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Rhyl
6–1
W
20 Mar
vs Buckley Town
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Gresford Athletic
0–5
L
1.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Penrhyncoch – last 3
LWL
1 Aug
vs Porthmadog
1–3
L
6 Apr
@ Caersws
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Denbigh Town
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newtown AFC and Penrhyncoch.
What is the prediction for Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch?
Our pick is Newtown AFC to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch?
On our numbers Newtown AFC have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Penrhyncoch 13%.
How many goals will there be in Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch?
Our predicted score is Newtown AFC 2–0 Penrhyncoch, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch?
Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Latham Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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