Value bet: Newport City to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNewport City to win ✗41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓72% · @1.53
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–2 ✗6% · fair 17.07
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Carmarthen Town travel to face Newport City on Saturday 8 August in the FAW Championship – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT. In the table, Newport City are 13th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; Carmarthen Town are 10th (lower half) with 15. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Newport City, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over llanelli AFC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Carmarthen Town, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Caerau (Ely), at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.4 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Carmarthen Town, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.5 for Newport City.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Newport City 4–4 Carmarthen Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newport City 2.7 xG, Carmarthen Town 2.3 xG – a total near 5.0. That is an open game on paper: 88% for three or more goals, 72% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newport City 41%, draw 23%, Carmarthen Town 36%.
GG/NG: GG (72%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Newport City to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (72%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.40, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newport City 2–2 Carmarthen Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newport City41%fair 2.42 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.20
Carmarthen Town36%fair 2.80 · @2.25
5.00Expected goals
2.71Newport City xG
2.29Carmarthen Town xG
72%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–26%
3–26%
2–16%
3–15%
2–35%
1–25%
From our goals model: Newport City 2.7 – 2.3 Carmarthen Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Newport City
Carmarthen Town
Attack vs FAW Championship average
+1%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+35%
Our expected goals here
2.47
1.79
Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
On our numbers Newport City have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Carmarthen Town 36%.
How many goals will there be in Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Our predicted score is Newport City 2–2 Carmarthen Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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