Denbigh Town 61%Draw 16%Porthmadog 23%Expected goals 2.05 – 1.12
61%
Betarazi pick
Denbigh Town to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Picks by market
ResultDenbigh Town to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Porthmadog travel to face Denbigh Town on Friday 21 August in the FAW Championship – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Denbigh Town are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 13 matches; Porthmadog are 3rd (among the top four) with 27. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Denbigh Town, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ruthin Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Porthmadog, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Buckley Town, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Porthmadog, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Denbigh Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Denbigh Town 2.1 xG, Porthmadog 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Denbigh Town 61%, draw 16%, Porthmadog 23%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Denbigh Town to win (61%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Denbigh Town 2–1 Porthmadog. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Denbigh Town61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
Draw16%fair 6.25 · @3.40
Porthmadog23%fair 4.44 · @3.00
3.17Expected goals
2.05Denbigh Town xG
1.12Porthmadog xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Denbigh Town 2.1 – 1.1 Porthmadog expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Denbigh Town to win✗
61%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.44
Draw no bet
Denbigh Town (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Porthmadog +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Denbigh Town to score first✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Denbigh Town ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Denbigh Town / FT Denbigh Town✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Denbigh Town – last 6
LLWWWD
14 Aug
@ Ruthin Town
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Bangor City 1876 FC
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Buckley Town
4–2
W
3 Jul
@ Colwyn Bay
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Penrhyncoch
1–0
W
31 Mar
vs Holyhead Hotspur
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Porthmadog – last 3
DWW
15 Aug
@ Buckley Town
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Rhyl
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Penrhyncoch
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Denbigh Town and Porthmadog.
What is the prediction for Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
Our pick is Denbigh Town to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
On our numbers Denbigh Town have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Porthmadog 23%.
How many goals will there be in Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
Our predicted score is Denbigh Town 2–1 Porthmadog, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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