Llantwit Major v Baglan Dragons Prediction & Expected Goals (15 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLlantwit Major to win ✗43% · @2.00

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.65

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.30

Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:30 WAT, Saturday 15 August: Llantwit Major v Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship. In the table, Llantwit Major are 15th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 12 matches; Baglan Dragons are 5th (upper half) with 20.

Current form

Llantwit Major, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Afan Lido, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.

Baglan Dragons, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Swansea University, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.

Momentum favours Llantwit Major, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.3 for Baglan Dragons.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Llantwit Major 1.5 xG, Baglan Dragons 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Llantwit Major 43%, draw 23%, Baglan Dragons 34%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Baglan Dragons to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Llantwit Major 1–1 Baglan Dragons. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Llantwit Major43%fair 2.33 · @2.00

Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.10

Baglan Dragons34%fair 2.92 · @3.25

2.75Expected goals

1.47Llantwit Major xG

1.28Baglan Dragons xG

58%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–09%

2–19%

0–18%

1–28%

2–07%

From our goals model: Llantwit Major 1.5 – 1.3 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Llantwit Major to win ✗	43%	2.33	2.00
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.29	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	58%	1.73	1.65
Draw no bet	Llantwit Major (draw no bet) ✗	56%	1.80	–
Asian handicap	Baglan Dragons +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	52%	1.93	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.42	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.17	–
First team to score	Llantwit Major to score first ✗	50%	2.00	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	42%	2.40	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Llantwit Major / FT Llantwit Major ✗	25%	4.07	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.30	–

Llantwit Major – last 6

LLLWWW

7 Aug	@ Afan Lido	0–5	L
1 Aug	vs Swansea University	0–3	L
20 Mar	@ Afan Lido	1–4	L
10 Mar	@ Cwmbran Celtic	3–1	W
6 Mar	@ Pontypridd Town	4–0	W
3 Mar	vs Treowen Stars	3–2	W

1.8Scored / game

2.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Baglan Dragons – last 6

LDLDLL

9 Aug	vs Swansea University	0–3	L
31 Jul	@ Trethomas Bluebirds	0–0	D
3 Apr	@ Cambrian & Clydach	0–2	L
24 Mar	vs Cwmbran Celtic	0–0	D
20 Mar	@ Ammanford AFC	0–1	L
17 Mar	@ Treowen Stars	1–4	L

0.2Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pontypridd Town	13	8	3	2	+13	27
2	Aberystwyth Town	11	8	1	2	+18	25
3	Swansea University	11	7	3	1	+19	24
4	Caerau (Ely)	13	7	1	5	+1	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	0	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Carmarthen Town	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	Newport City	11	3	4	4	+4	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	llanelli AFC	14	0	3	11	-31	3

Team

Pts

+13

+18

+19

-2

-1

-6

-1

-7

-5

-12

-31

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

On our numbers Llantwit Major have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Baglan Dragons 34%.

How many goals will there be in Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

Our predicted score is Llantwit Major 1–1 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?

Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Llantwit Major v Baglan Dragons: numbers & prediction