Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 11 September the FAW Championship brings Caerau (Ely) against llanelli AFC. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Caerau (Ely) are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; llanelli AFC are 16th (in the drop zone) with 3. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Caerau (Ely), last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Treowen Stars, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
llanelli AFC, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Treowen Stars, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Caerau (Ely), collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for llanelli AFC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caerau (Ely) 3.2 xG, llanelli AFC 1.1 xG – a total near 4.3. That is an open game on paper: 80% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caerau (Ely) 74%, draw 18%, llanelli AFC 7%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Caerau (Ely) to win (74%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caerau (Ely) 3–1 llanelli AFC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caerau (Ely)74%fair 1.35 · @1.22
Draw18%fair 5.46 · @5.50
llanelli AFC7%fair 13.37 · @8.50
4.31Expected goals
3.16Caerau (Ely) xG
1.15llanelli AFC xG
61%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–18%
2–18%
3–07%
2–07%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 3.2 – 1.1 llanelli AFC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✓
93%
1.08
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Draw no bet
Caerau (Ely) (draw no bet)✓
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Caerau (Ely) -1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
First team to score
Caerau (Ely) to score first✓
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✓
54%
1.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.30
–
Recent results
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
WLLWDL
31 Aug
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
28 Aug
@ Baglan Dragons
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Swansea University
1–5
L
14 Aug
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
4–2
W
7 Aug
vs Ynyshir Albions
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Carmarthen Town
3–4
L
2.2Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
llanelli AFC – last 6
LLDLLD
4 Sep
vs Treowen Stars
0–2
L
31 Aug
@ Aberystwyth Town
0–4
L
28 Aug
vs Carmarthen Town
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Cardiff Draconians
2–4
L
15 Aug
@ Swansea University
0–3
L
7 Aug
vs Trethomas Bluebirds
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and llanelli AFC.
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 18% and llanelli AFC 7%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
Our predicted score is Caerau (Ely) 3–1 llanelli AFC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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